NASA 'Significantly' Lowers the Odds of 2024 YR4 Asteroid Hitting Earth in 2032

NASA has considerably lowered the risk of the asteroid 2024 YR4’s collision with Earth.

In a news release on Monday, Feb. 24, the space agency announced that the asteroid — which, one week ago, was predicted to have a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth — now has an “impact probability” of “only 0.004%” on Dec. 22, 2032.

"NASA has significantly lowered the risk of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 as an impact threat to Earth for the foreseeable future, officials said. "When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small, but notable chance of impacting our planet in 2032."

But, after more observations, experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies “were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid’s trajectory,” NASA added.

“That’s the outcome we expected all along, although we couldn’t be 100% sure that it would happen,” Paul Chodas, manager of the JPL Center, told the Associated Press.

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According to NASA, there is still a 1.7% chance that the asteroid could hit the moon on the same day in 2032. Chodas said he expected that percentage will also decrease as more observations are made.

The chances of the asteroid’s collision have been fluctuating over the past few weeks.

The asteroid, which was first reported in December 2024 and is large enough to destroy an entire city, was initially calculated to have a 1% chance of hitting the Earth in the year 2032. By Feb. 7, the odds had more than doubled to 2.3% — a percentage that experts called “uncommon.”

On Tuesday, Feb. 18, NASA recalculated the odds to 3.1%, the highest ever recorded for an object of its size, according to the agency.